Predicting the CFP Championship

It’s been a while since I’ve blogged so I figured I would shed some light on the last College Football game of the season. As you all know, it’s Buck vs. Duck. Oregon vs. Ohio State for all the marbles. Vegas currently has the line at Oregon -6 over Ohio State. I think that’s a pretty fair line. I do, however, see a ton of value and the play tonight seems pretty obvious.

I love Ohio State +6 here. I actually love them moneyline as well at +180 if you feel like living on the edge. I won’t get into too much detail but I will briefly explain why. The Buckeyes are simply on FIRE. They crushed Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game and beat up on the Crimson Tide two weeks ago. I had Bama in that game – as I’m sure the rest of America did as well -- and I refuse to get burned by the Buckeyes again. Maybe that’s my pride showing but the numbers indicate this should be a relatively close game. If Ohio State doesn’t win outright, they should still cover the spread.

OSU beat Bama by a mere touchdown but showed a lot in that game. They looked very good on both offense and defense. They ran the ball extremely well, converted on 3^rd down, and made just enough big plays in the passing game when they had to. They did all of this with their 3^rd string quarterback. Clearly, Cardale Jones is much better than your average 3^rd stringer. He’s got a cannon for an arm and can do just enough with his legs to keep opposing teams honest. He should have a big game against Oregon’s shaky defense.

Ezekiel Elliot should have a big game running the ball. He ran for 230 against Bama and obviously that’ll be tough to repeat but I guarantee he finds some big holes against this Duck’s defense. Bama has a much better defense than Oregon and it’s not even close. Wide receiver, Devin Smith, should also have a big game catching the ball. He’ll be able to stretch this defense vertically, especially since Oregon is missing its best cornerback. Florida State was doing well offensively and scoring against the Ducks until they started fumbling the ball as if it was dipped in butter on every play in the 3^rd quarter – seriously, they had 3 fumbles that all resulted in touchdowns for Oregon. FSU was eventually blown out but showed that the Ducks give up points pretty easily and I see OSU scoring a lot of them tonight.

Aside from Oregon’s defense, I don’t know that the offense will put up the eye-popping numbers we’re used to seeing from them. They’re missing 2 key receivers. Devon Allen is injured and Darren Carrington is the dumbest person on the planet for not being able to go a week without smoking weed. How dumb do you have to be to just not smoke weed before the last game of the season?!?

Marcus Mariota is obviously the best quarterback in the country and the Ducks will do Duck things but it won’t be as easy as they’ve made it look this season. They still have playmakers all over the field and its tough betting against the Heisman winner, but I still like the Buckeyes. Their defense is good enough to limit big plays and I think they’ll create just enough turnovers to shock the Ducks. It won’t really be a shock but most people are picking the Ducks. People love betting favorites and that won’t ever change. Me? I’m going with “The Ohio State University.”

Prediction: OSU 41, Oregon 31.